Malik
(7/28/10)
Why is it that the same
type of crap constantly comes along as predictions of the future? I
mean we have all sorts of "well informed predictions" about
everything. If they all came true, it would be hard to say where we
would be today...actually, no it wouldn't be. If every doomsday
revelation of any sort came true, we'd be dead.
Just look at the
1950's and 1960's. Take any of these predictions and we'd all be
having flying cars right now...useless flying cars since we'd all be
dead from a nuclear strike from Russia. Go two decades years later,
and we'd all be dead from a nuclear fallout from our own reactions
going Chernobyl on us. Go another two decades and we're all dead
from an Iranian nuclear strike. Actually, go back to the 1950's and
we're still alive since we all knew duck-and-cover would stop a
nuclear blast from hurting us. You can find these supposed informed
prophecies all over the damned place.
My favorite is
always the technology based ones. I mean right now we should all be
playing video games in virtual reality setups that were science
fiction in the 1980's and 90's (think Lawnmower Man or
Virtuosity)...and are still science fiction today...but our modern
sci-fi vision is a damned bit more impressive. There are also no
longer any console wars since Sega and Nintendo merged into one
giant company, or one defeated the other (let's pretend that there
aren't three major console makers and that Sega didn't in fact
destroy themselves).
The best of the
best, however, always comes from where PCs should be today. I mean
we'll never need more than 640kb of RAM, right? We'll also no longer
be using PCs anymore, since they are outdated. We'll also all have
super computers in the palm of our hands, via the Star Trek
tricorder. Go back really far and we'll one day have computers in
each home that only takes up the entire garage.
The one about
desktops being gone is the top one for me. How many times have we
heard it? I don't even know. However, we can still find
talk of this sort today. I mean laptops are selling better than
desktops right now. It is true, but it's also a blind style of
perspective.
By a blind
perspective, I mean I can say that we're doomed to freeze to death
when I look outside at sun down. After all, the sun is leaving and
now we're doomed to eternal cold. However, that's pretending that
one observation equals the entire big picture. It's like reading a
Where's Waldo book, finding Waldo, and then saying there were no
other shenanigans on the page. You saw Waldo, but you didn't see
anything else.
Waldo is the
slower pace of desktop sales compared to laptops. Then again, we're
in a different style of world today than we used to be. The main
difference being two simple facts; we are in a world in which no one
wants to slow down and sit still (we live in a short-hand, I want it
now, I must go faster society), and that laptops have fallen greatly
in price.
The forgotten fact
is that laptops will always be behind desktops in technology. If you
are a graphic designer of some sort, you need a desktop to keep up
with evolving visual arts technologies. A laptop just cannot cut it
when you want to make a deeply rendered 3D structure on a deadline.
The same goes for gamers, who still do make up a large amount of PC
users, who would rather push their games to maximum settings instead
of going for "medium" on all visual settings. Desktops keep ahead of
the PC technology curve far better than laptops, and also are far
more upgradeable for the next round of technology. In other words,
as long as technology improves, and you want to keep as modern in
your use of technology as possible, you need a desktop to handle it.
When DirectX 10 came along, if you wanted a graphics card to handle
it, you were looking at a desktop. When DirectX 11 emerges in the
future, you will either want a desktop to use it, or you will need
to wait a good amount of time for a laptop to come along with such a
video card.
To even hint that
desktops are doomed is the same line of logic used in the past to
say PCs will not be game machines in the near future. It just isn't
based in reality.
Although, there is
one interesting fact I find in that linked article; almost half of
all Windows based desktops are four or more years old, while almost
a fifth of laptops are less than a year old. I find this interesting
because it shows more of the big picture than anything else.
Laptops, for one thing, have pretty set expiration dates. Since
laptops tend to start at lower levels of technology than an equally
priced desktop, they will become obsolete quicker. Plus, laptops are
getting cheaper all the time, so they are more attractive to the
more casual of PC user (the type who wants to write documents, check
email, surf the web, and watch videos on the run). Most of all,
desktops can be fully upgraded, so a new $500-$1000 desktop is not
needed when you can just periodically upgrade a single component for
a fraction of the cost.
Anyway, I just had
to rant about this. Even with a final line or two about how desktops
will not go extinct immediately, this type of doomsday talk in
technology is just the type of subject to annoy me. While the people
who talk about this stuff in professional settings (like in major
media outlets) may be able to claim they are technology experts, I
think a divide exists in technology between those with "book smarts"
and those with "street smarts". Users have "street smarts" enough to
understand what they use and why they use it, while the "educated"
types seem to rely too much on stats and not on practical ways to
interpret such data.
Then again, these
"educated" types are the ones who are "smart" enough to see that the
rise in illegal downloads of music and videos is directly tied in to
the loss of profits for record and movie studios. I mean it can't be
that quality has gone down and people just don't want to pay for
crap, that has gone up in price while dropping in quality. I mean
that just goes against the stats that somehow tie in two non-binding
data sets.
Malik |